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X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://canssiontario.utoronto.ca/
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UID:MEC-882d23545f95e15c6e05355cd457d0bb@canssiontario.utoronto.ca
DTSTART:20260325T180000Z
DTEND:20260325T190000Z
DTSTAMP:20260122T210300Z
CREATED:20260122
LAST-MODIFIED:20260526
SUMMARY:CAST Seminar: Benjamin Bolker
DESCRIPTION:\nJoin us at the CANSSI Ontario STatistics Seminars (CAST) with\n\n\n\nBenjamin Bolker\n\n\n\nProfessorDepartments of Mathematics & Statistics and of BiologyMcMaster University\n\n\n\nTalk Title\n\n\n\nBayesian Modeling of Trait Evolution in Fishes\n\n\n\nAbstract\n\n\n\nBiologists often want to understand why certain traits of organisms evolved. One way of translating this question into a statistical context is to set up a continuous-time, discrete-state Markov process along the branches of a phylogenetic tree and estimate how the evolutionary rates (log-hazards of changes in particular states) vary depending on the current values of other traits. Using an example from fish biology I will explain how to estimate the log-likelihood of a set of tip states given a transition matrix; based on this computation we can use standard Bayesian (Markov chain Monte Carlo) techniques to estimate linear contrasts that describe the effects of one biological trait on the evolutionary rate of another trait. I will also (1) rant briefly about some philosophical issues, in particular why single, scalar metrics describing model performance (in this case, p-values, but applicable to other metrics from statistics and machine learning) are less useful than interval measures of uncertainty (2) discuss ongoing technical improvements using automatic differentiation to enable Hamilton Monte Carlo sampling. \n\n\n\nSpeaker Profile\n\n\n\nTBD\n\n\n\n\n
URL:https://canssiontario.utoronto.ca/event/cast-bejamin-bolker/
ORGANIZER;CN=CANSSI Ontario:MAILTO:esther.berzunza@utoronto.ca
CATEGORIES:CANSSI Ontario Statistics Seminars
LOCATION:DNA Building, 2140 E Bank Dr, Peterborough, ON
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/png:https://canssiontario.utoronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Benjamin-Bolker-1.png
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